Backtest: Buy BKR at the close when BKR closes at a 20-day closing low while Brent crud...
A 91% win rate sounds like a winner. But across 12 trades, buying BKR at 20-day closing lows while Brent held above its 20-day average returned just 6.95% on $100,000—while SPY buy-and-hold returned 85.28%. The edge was real; the exposure was tiny.
The setup tests a specific dislocation: an oil-services bellwether getting sold to new 20-day lows even as crude's trend stays intact, then snapping back once forced selling clears. The exit is mechanical—BKR back above its 5-day average or five days, whichever comes first.
That high hit rate and modest return tell their own story about trade size and time in market. The full breakdown is below.
Buy BKR at the close when BKR closes at a 20-day closing low while Brent crude closes above its 20-day simple moving average; exit when BKR closes above its 5-day simple moving average or after 5 trading days, whichever comes first. An oil-services bellwether making new 20-day lows while crude still holds its trend is being liquidated, and BKR tends to snap back once the forced selling clears.
How this was measured
This is a simulated backtest generated from the plain-English strategy below, executed bar-by-bar on historical market data using the price + news data mode with $100,000 starting capital. Strategy: Buy BKR at the close when BKR closes at a 20-day closing low while Brent crude closes above its 20-day simple moving average; exit when BKR closes above its 5-day simple moving average or after 5 trading days, whichever comes first. An oil-services bellwether making new 20-day lows while crude still holds its trend is being liquidated, and BKR tends to snap back once the forced selling clears.
The key numbers
The charts
The takeaway
The strategy returned +6.95% on $100,000 starting capital across 12 closed trades with a 91% win rate. Over the same window SPY buy-and-hold returned +85.28%, so the strategy finished trailing the benchmark by 78.32 points. Best single trade +6.31%, worst -5.64%.
The fine print
- Simulated results on historical data — fills, slippage and costs are idealized.
- Past performance does not predict future results.