Backtest: Buy DVN at the close when it closes down at least 2% on the day and in the bo...
A 59% win rate that still loses money — that's the whole tension in this one. The setup is intuitive: a high-beta producer gets sold hard, down at least 2% and in the bottom half of its daily range, while Brent crude is still holding above its 20-day average. Buy that flush, and the idea is you're getting paid for the other side's forced selling.
Across 29 signals and $100,000 of starting capital, the snapback didn't show up often enough or large enough. The strategy finished at -14.26%, and the shape of the outcomes explains why: the best trade made +6.97%, the worst lost -15.30%. A quick exit into the 5-day average caps the upside; the downside has five days to run.
The full bar-by-bar record, trade list, and benchmark comparison are laid out below.
Buy DVN at the close when it closes down at least 2% on the day and in the bottom half of its daily range, while Brent crude closes above its 20-day simple moving average; exit when DVN closes above its 5-day simple moving average or after 5 trading days, whichever comes first. A high-beta producer getting hit hard while the oil tape holds trend is a positioning flush, so DVN tends to snap back once the forced selling clears.
How this was measured
This is a simulated backtest generated from the plain-English strategy below, executed bar-by-bar on historical market data using the price + news data mode with $100,000 starting capital. Strategy: Buy DVN at the close when it closes down at least 2% on the day and in the bottom half of its daily range, while Brent crude closes above its 20-day simple moving average; exit when DVN closes above its 5-day simple moving average or after 5 trading days, whichever comes first. A high-beta producer getting hit hard while the oil tape holds trend is a positioning flush, so DVN tends to snap back once the forced selling clears.
The key numbers
The charts
The takeaway
The strategy returned -14.26% on $100,000 starting capital across 29 closed trades with a 59% win rate. Over the same window SPY buy-and-hold returned +85.28%, so the strategy finished trailing the benchmark by 99.53 points. Best single trade +6.97%, worst -15.30%.
The fine print
- Simulated results on historical data — fills, slippage and costs are idealized.
- Past performance does not predict future results.