Backtest: Buy KMI at the close when KMI closes above its 10-day simple moving average w...
The setup had a plausible story: when KMI holds its 10-day trend while Brent trades under its 20-day, midstream's contracted cash flows are supposedly shrugging off spot crude, and that defensive bid is meant to follow through. Putting it on $100,000 across 66 closed trades, it didn't.
The strategy finished down 1.28%, winning 36.9% of the time, and the best single trade only reached +6.70% against a worst of -4.39%. That asymmetry of outcome, many small wins and losses with no edge, is what dragged it 86.56 points behind SPY buy-and-hold.
The gap between the intuition and the tape is the interesting part. The full bar-by-bar breakdown, trade log, and equity curve are below.
Buy KMI at the close when KMI closes above its 10-day simple moving average while Brent crude closes below its 20-day simple moving average; exit when KMI closes below its 5-day simple moving average or after 5 trading days, whichever comes first. Midstream cash-flow visibility decouples from spot crude, so KMI holding its short-term trend while Brent trades below trend signals defensive energy accumulation that tends to follow through.
How this was measured
This is a simulated backtest generated from the plain-English strategy below, executed bar-by-bar on historical market data using the price + news data mode with $100,000 starting capital. Strategy: Buy KMI at the close when KMI closes above its 10-day simple moving average while Brent crude closes below its 20-day simple moving average; exit when KMI closes below its 5-day simple moving average or after 5 trading days, whichever comes first. Midstream cash-flow visibility decouples from spot crude, so KMI holding its short-term trend while Brent trades below trend signals defensive energy accumulation that tends to follow through.
The key numbers
The charts
The takeaway
The strategy returned -1.28% on $100,000 starting capital across 66 closed trades with a 37% win rate. Over the same window SPY buy-and-hold returned +85.28%, so the strategy finished trailing the benchmark by 86.56 points. Best single trade +6.70%, worst -4.39%.
The fine print
- Simulated results on historical data — fills, slippage and costs are idealized.
- Past performance does not predict future results.