Backtest: Buy OIH at the close when OIH closes down at least 1.5% from its prior close...
A 57% win rate over 47 trades sounds like a working edge. On $100,000 of starting capital, it produced an 8.86% return. The catch: SPY buy-and-hold returned 76.34% over the same window, leaving the strategy behind by 67.48 points.
The test was straightforward. Buy OIH at the close whenever it fell at least 1.5% from the prior close, but only if Brent crude was above its 50-day simple moving average. Exit when OIH closed back above its 5-day average, or after five trading days. The idea is a crude-supported energy dip-buy.
The full trade log and charts are below. The short version is that a decent hit rate did not translate into a competitive result.
Buy OIH at the close when OIH closes down at least 1.5% from its prior close while Brent crude closes above its 50-day simple moving average; exit when OIH closes above its 5-day simple moving average or after 5 trading days, whichever comes first.
How this was measured
This is a simulated backtest generated from the plain-English strategy below, executed bar-by-bar on historical market data using the price + news data mode with $100,000 starting capital. Strategy: Buy OIH at the close when OIH closes down at least 1.5% from its prior close while Brent crude closes above its 50-day simple moving average; exit when OIH closes above its 5-day simple moving average or after 5 trading days, whichever comes first.
The key numbers
The charts
The takeaway
The strategy returned +8.86% on $100,000 starting capital across 47 closed trades with a 57% win rate. Over the same window SPY buy-and-hold returned +76.34%, so the strategy finished trailing the benchmark by 67.48 points. Best single trade +8.10%, worst -6.11%.
The fine print
- Simulated results on historical data — fills, slippage and costs are idealized.
- Past performance does not predict future results.