Backtest: Buy XOP at the close when it closes at a 20-day high and Brent crude closes a...
A 20-day high in XOP is only interesting if the oil tape agrees. That's the filter tested here: buy the E&P basket at the close when it breaks to a 20-day high and Brent is trading above its 50-day simple moving average, then step aside when XOP loses its 10-day average or ten sessions pass, whichever comes first. The logic is that a high-beta basket clearing resistance while crude holds trend reflects real accumulation rather than a head fake, so the move tends to run until the short-term structure cracks.
The backtest, run bar-by-bar on $100,000 of starting capital, turned that idea into 24 closed trades and a 79% win rate, producing +118.44% on capital against +85.28% for SPY buy-and-hold over the same window. The spread — 33.17 points — is the headline. So is the shape of the distribution: the best trade made 11.70%, the worst lost 1.84%.
The full trade-by-trade record, equity curve, and drawdown detail are laid out in the analysis below.
Buy XOP at the close when it closes at a 20-day high and Brent crude closes above its 50-day simple moving average; exit when XOP closes below its 10-day simple moving average or after 10 trading days, whichever comes first. A high-beta E&P basket breaking out only when oil holds its trend shows real accumulation, so momentum tends to persist until the short-term trend breaks.
How this was measured
This is a simulated backtest generated from the plain-English strategy below, executed bar-by-bar on historical market data using the price + news data mode with $100,000 starting capital. Strategy: Buy XOP at the close when it closes at a 20-day high and Brent crude closes above its 50-day simple moving average; exit when XOP closes below its 10-day simple moving average or after 10 trading days, whichever comes first. A high-beta E&P basket breaking out only when oil holds its trend shows real accumulation, so momentum tends to persist until the short-term trend breaks.
The key numbers
The charts
The takeaway
The strategy returned +118.44% on $100,000 starting capital across 24 closed trades with a 79% win rate. Over the same window SPY buy-and-hold returned +85.28%, so the strategy finished beating the benchmark by 33.17 points. Best single trade +11.70%, worst -1.84%.
The fine print
- Simulated results on historical data — fills, slippage and costs are idealized.
- Past performance does not predict future results.