NIO 14-day RSI<30: forward 5-day returns vs non-event baseline (last ~3 years)
RSI(14) closing below 30 on NIO tilts toward a short-term bounce, but it’s a fragile tilt rather than a robust signal. Over the trailing ~3 years I flagged days with RSI<30 and measured strict forward 5-day returns: the 18 event days averaged +2.88% while the non-event baseline sat near -0.27%. That raw contrast looks interesting at first glance.
Digging deeper the evidence is mixed and noisy: statistical tests are borderline, the event sample is tiny, volatility on both sides is high, and RSI level has essentially no linear correlation with forward 5-day outcomes. The full report below shows the distributions, p-values, and a scatter of RSI versus forward returns so you can judge whether this is a tradable edge or mostly folklore.
For NIO over the past ~3 years, does the textbook RSI-below-30 'oversold' signal actually mark tradeable bounces, or does oversold just keep bleeding in a downtrend? Thesis: forward 5-day returns after the 14-day RSI closes under 30 come out statistically indistinguishable from — if not worse than — the everyday baseline, so 'oversold equals buy' is folklore in a weak name where weakness begets weakness rather than reversion.
How this was measured
Resampled NIO minute bars to daily closes over the trailing ~3 years (anchored to the latest available date). Computed 14-day RSI via Wilder-style EWMA smoothing (alpha=1/14). Flagged event days where RSI closed below 30 and measured the strict forward 5-trading-day return: close[t+5]/close[t]-1. Compared the event-day forward-return distribution to a non-event baseline (days with RSI≥30) using Welch's two-sample t-test, and reported a rank-based Mann–Whitney U p-value as a robustness check. A scatter shows the continuous relationship between RSI level and forward 5-day returns.
The key numbers
Reading the numbers
When RSI closed below 30 (18 days) the average forward 5‑day return was +2.88% vs a baseline mean of −0.27% (715 days). The raw gap is +3.16% but the two-sided Welch p=0.103 means that difference is not statistically clear.
The charts
This box plot lines up the 5‑day returns after RSI<30 (n=18) against the 715 non‑event days. The center of the RSI<30 group sits around +2.88% with outcomes spanning −10.71% to +18.73%, while non‑events center near −0.27% and span −20.88% to +41.24%. The eye should go to that higher central value for RSI<30, but the ranges overlap and the small event sample means the apparent advantage may not be reliable in practice.
The histogram shows the 18 individual forward‑5d outcomes after RSI<30: mean +2.88%, min −10.71%, max +18.73%, and 12 of 18 events were positive (66.7%). What stands out is dispersion — a few sizeable positive outcomes push the average up while several negatives persist — so a majority of events win but the sample is small and noisy, limiting confidence that each RSI<30 is a dependable bounce signal.
This scatter plots RSI‑14 versus forward 5‑day return across all 733 valid days: RSI runs from 24.70 to 87.80 (mean 48.14) while the average 5‑day return overall is about −0.20%. Look at the low‑RSI zone near 24.7 — returns there are mixed, with both notable losses and gains, so low RSI does not map cleanly to guaranteed reversion. Combined with the statistical tests (mean gap +3.16% but Welch p=0.103 and Mann–Whitney p=0.056), the plot supports the thesis that oversold readings in this name are noisy signals rather than a consistent trigger for bounce trades.
Forward 5-day return summary (events vs baseline)
| group | N | mean | median | std | fraction_positive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSI<30 (events) | 18 | 0.0288 | 0.0289 | 0.0766 | 0.6667 |
| Non-event baseline | 715 | -0.0027 | -0.0112 | 0.0946 | 0.4364 |
Most recent RSI<30 events (last 20)
| date | rsi14 | fwd_5d_return |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-03 | 25.21 | 0.0482 |
| 2025-12-02 | 28.29 | -0.0069 |
| 2025-12-01 | 29.6 | -0.0097 |
| 2025-11-20 | 24.7 | 0.0261 |
| 2025-04-08 | 27.41 | 0.1564 |
| 2024-04-19 | 29.06 | 0.1873 |
| 2024-04-17 | 29.15 | 0.0384 |
| 2024-04-16 | 25.95 | 0.0707 |
| 2024-04-15 | 27.22 | 0.0179 |
| 2024-04-12 | 29.79 | -0.0779 |
| 2024-04-08 | 29.46 | -0.1071 |
| 2024-04-05 | 29.62 | -0.0659 |
| 2024-03-28 | 28.88 | -0.0265 |
| 2024-02-05 | 28.37 | 0.1257 |
| 2024-02-02 | 29.66 | 0.065 |
| 2024-01-31 | 29.9 | 0.0388 |
| 2024-01-22 | 28.06 | 0.0318 |
| 2024-01-19 | 29.1 | 0.0065 |
The takeaway
Short answer: RSI(14) closing under 30 on NIO tilts toward a small 5-day bounce, but the evidence is suggestive rather than conclusive. The 18 RSI<30 days averaged +2.88% forward 5-day return (median +2.89% and 66.7% positive) versus the 715 non-event days which averaged -0.27% (median -1.12% and 43.6% positive) — a raw mean gap of about 3.16 percentage points. Statistical tests are mixed and weak: Welch p = 0.103 (roughly a 10-in-100 chance this gap is luck) and Mann–Whitney p = 0.056 (roughly a 5.6-in-100 chance) — borderline at best, not a clean reject of no effect. The signal is noisy: event returns have a standard deviation of ~7.66% (baseline ~9.46%) and the Pearson correlation between RSI and forward 5-day return is essentially zero (r ≈ 0.0039), so lower RSI doesn’t consistently predict larger short-term gains. Practical takeaway: RSI<30 produced more positive 5-day outcomes in this window, but with only 18 events, high variance, and marginal p-values, it’s a weak, risky edge — not a reliable “oversold = buy” rule on its own.
The fine print
- Only 18 RSI<30 events in the ~3‑year window — thin sample for firm conclusions.
- Forward 5-day windows overlap across adjacent days, inflating apparent sample information.
- RSI used an EWMA approximation to Wilder smoothing; trigger dates can shift with other implementations.
- Analysis uses close-to-close returns; intraday gaps can dominate 5-day outcomes.